Sunday, April 23, 2023

15% chance

How, how, how are entire weeks going by without me writing a single word on this blog? I swore this would never happen to me. But here we are.

The three middle kids spent the past week sleeping in a tent. They have bedrooms...with comfy beds in them...but they prefer to squash into a flimsy tent on thin foam padding. Go figure. 

They were excited because there was no rain in the forecast this week...until last night, that is. Even then, there was only a 15% chance of rain. Coming from the desert, we figured that meant it wouldn't rain, but we moved the tent under the roof on the back porch, just in case. And a good thing we did, too, because we landed in that 15% and it rained!

I think everyone pretty much knows that that 15% chance means that in 15% of the however many million models run by rained. I understand that, too. But there's some part of my brain that assumes that if there's only a 15% chance of rain, then even if it does rain it won't rain very hard.

Evidently that assumption is incorrect because apparently last night we had a 15% chance of being caught in a two-hour downpour! 

Thunder, lightning, wind and heavy rain!

I was so glad our flimsy, little tent was protected by the roof. 

We need to remember that in the south any percent chance of rain is a high percent chance of rain!

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